SEMINARS
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Fall 2007
STATISTICS
COLLOQUIUM
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
3:30-4:00—Refreshments
4:00-5:00—Talk
Yost Hall, Room 101
David Gurarie, Ph.D.
Professor, Department of Mathematics
Case Western Reserve University
Stochastic Models of Infection Diseases: In-host Dynamics and Community Transmission
Traditional models of infectious diseases, either population- level "SIR" or in-host dynamics, often use deterministic continuous formulation (e.g. differential equations) appropriate for idealized homogeneous populations and mixing patterns. In reality, many of these processes are inherently uncertain (random) due to various heterogeneities and finite size populations.
Stochastic formulation allows us to address some of those shortcomings. The talk will outline several examples of stochastic formulation, both on individual (in-host) and community levels.
Then we shall develop an "individual-based" stochastic approach to immune-modulated malaria infection and disease in children, to examine possible effect of interventions (preventive treatment and vaccination).
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