SEMINARS
|
|
Spring 2005
STATISTICS
COLLOQUIUM
Friday, March 25, 2005
2:30-3:00—Refreshments
3:00-4:00—Talk
Yost Hall, Room 300
Vanja Dukic
University of Chicago, Department of Health Studies
Optimal Survival Curve Ranking (OSCR): Application to AIDS Reporting Delay
Time delay between a new AIDS diagnosis and its report to the CDC, historically ranging between couple of weeks and couple of years, presents a significant problem when trying to predict future AIDS incidence and health care burden. The reporting delay needs to be
correctly estimated and adjusted for in order to avoid potentially serious downward bias. We examine case reports from 39 large US cities, received by the CDC as of the end of December 2001 and published in the APIDS database. We employ Bayesian multi-resolution methodology to estimate city-specific
hazards of reporting delay, adjusting for patient covariates and within-city correlation. We describe the ranking of the 39 US cities according to their reporting delay distributions based on the optimal survival curve ranking (OSCR) procedure. We discuss uncertainty in the
reported delay estimates and in the resulting ranking, and a way to visualize this uncertainty.
|
